BR TO WALTER W. MARSEILLE, 5 MAY 1948
BRACERS 85852. ALS(X). McMaster. SLBR 2: #482
Edited by N. Griffin. Proofread by K. Blackwell

Trinity College
Cambridge.
May 5, 1948.

Dear Dr. Marseille1

I have read your paper with great interest. I agree entirely with all the underlying assumptions. As soon as Russia rejected the Baruch proposals, I urged that all nations favouring international control of atomic energy should form an Alliance, and threaten Russia with war unless Russia agreed to come in and permit inspection. Your proposal is, in effect, the same, for the compulsory inspection you advocate would be, legally, an act of war, and would be so viewed by the Soviet government.

During the past year, conversations with professional strategists2 have slightly modified my views. They say that in a few years we shall be in a better position, and that Russia will not yet have atomic bombs; that the economic recovery and military integration of Western Europe should be carried further before war begins; that at present neither air power nor atomic bombs could prevent Russia from overrunning all W. Europe up to the Straits of Dover; and that the most dangerous period for us is the next 2 years. These views may or may not be correct, but at any rate they are those of the best experts.

There are some things of which Europeans are more vividly conscious than Americans. If Russia overruns W. Europe, the destruction will be such as no subsequent re-conquest can undo. Practically the whole educated population will be sent to Labour camps in N.E. Siberia or on the shores of the White Sea, where most will die of hardships and the survivors will be turned into animals. (Cf. what happened to Polish intellectuals.3) Atomic bombs, if used, will at first have to be dropped on W. Europe, since Russia will be out of reach. The Russians, even without atomic bombs, will be able to destroy all big towns in England, as the Germans would have done if the war had lasted a few months longer. I have no doubt that America would win in the end, but unless W. Europe can be preserved from invasion, it will be lost to civilization for centuries.

Even at such a price, I think war would be worth while. Communism must be wiped out, and world government must be established. But if, by waiting, we could defend our present lines in Germany and Italy, it would be an immeasurable boon.

I do not think the Russians will yield without war. I think all (including Stalin) are fatuous and ignorant. But I hope I am wrong about this.

Yours sincerely
Bertrand Russell.

• 1

  Dr. Marseille The letter is reprinted, with notes, in an appendix to Collected Papers 25.

• 2

  conversations with professional strategists Presumably those at the Imperial Defence College.

• 3

  Cf. what happened to Polish intellectuals. Both Germany and Russia had conducted savage purges of Polish intellectuals. Between 1947 and 1949 Stalin conducted another one.