"Thursday aftn." "What I want to say in America is something like this: Modern war is very harmful to neutrals as well, and therefore it is the interest of pacific powers to prevent others from fighting. England and France, at least, would be thankful for any arbitration system which made another great war less likely. The allies have been concluding arbitration treaties with U.S.A. and would probably be willing to conclude them with each other. Germany and Austria might be compelled to conclude similar treaties as part of the terms of peace. If all the powers guaranteed all the treaties, and undertook to oppose any power which infringed them, no single power would be strong enough to compel war, and a stable peace might be secured. In that case, a great diminution of armaments would also be possible. America will have to represent the interests of neutrals in the peace negotiations, and can hold the balance in the interests of permanent peace. But unless some such scheme is adopted, America will require a huge increase of armaments for the future protection of the Munroe [Monroe] Doctrine. Thus America at this moment can fittingly champion the interest of humanity, as opposed to those of either side in the war. Liberal opinion throughout Europe, which is momentarily dumb owing to the war, would wholeheartedly support America in such action, and after the war all Europe would be glad to be saved from itself."

"I have to lecture in Oxford three weeks hence, and the lecture will have to be published. It is terribly hard to think about philosophy."

[Monroe Doctrine.]